Monday, July 13, 2009

CSX, Dell, Advertising and Fastenal CONFIRM Depression!


(MarketWatch) -- Ad-supported media will see a 14% decline in advertising revenue this year, the ad buying agency Magna said Monday, but there is room for optimism.

Magna, a division of Interpublic's Mediabrands, said the ongoing economic crisis triggered last September will continue, as ad revenues drop to $161 billion from $189 billion in 2008.

"The first half of 2009 will likely turn out to be the worst period of this recession, during which time Magna estimates ... advertising revenues will have fallen by 18% vs. the same period in 2008," the company said.


WINONA, Minn., July 13, 2009 The Fastenal Company of Winona, MN (Nasdaq:FAST - News) reported the results of the quarter ended June 30, 2009. Except as otherwise noted below, dollar amounts are in thousands.

Net sales for the three-month period ended June 30, 2009 totaled $474,894, a decrease of 21.4% from net sales of $604,219 in the second quarter of 2008. Net earnings decreased from $76,166 in the second quarter of 2008 to $43,538 in the second quarter of 2009, a decrease of 42.8%. Basic and diluted earnings per share decreased from $.51 to $.29 for the comparable periods.

Fastenal is a key supplier to construction and industrials. If FAST is slow, you know the landscape of the industrial flow.

NEW Housing sales DOWN 80%.
NEW Auto dales DOWN over 50%.

DELL's revenues DOWN over 20% y/y.
CSX's revenues DOWN over 20% y/y.

Housing, Autos, Airlines, Advertising, Media, Hotels, Technology, Transportation...

industry after industry now reporting double digit sales declines, a couple years in a row in some cases, leaving little room for doubt that our economy entered into a depression sometime in the second quarter of this year(backing out deficit government spending of course).

My guess is in a relatively short period of time, the "economists" will stop smoking the green shoots and actually realize what is happening in the real world by collectively calling a DEPRESSION months after it happened.

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