Sunday, July 12, 2009

Are Economists Smoking Green Shoots?

From Bloomberg Today:

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. probably increased in June for a second straight month and factory production fell at a slower pace as the recession abated, economists said before reports this week.

Sales gained 0.4 percent after a 0.5 percent increase in May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before the Commerce Department’s report on July 14. The next day, Federal Reserve figures may show industrial output fell 0.6 percent last month after a 1.1 percent drop in May.

Consumers are venturing back into stores, seeking discounts and favoring necessities such as food or fuel. Even as the projected increase in sales and reports this week on housing may show the worst of the downturn has passed, a turnaround is likely to be gradual.

Confirmation from MarketWatch:

On Tuesday the Commerce Department will report retail sales for June, and economists polled by MarketWatch are looking for a gain of 0.5%, matching the prior month's result.

That is TWO sources where Economists are calling for HIGHER June numbers!

Vs. CNN LAST WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

( -- It looks like Americans still aren't in the mood to splurge at the mall.

Several of the nation's leading retail chains reported Thursday that their same-store sales declined again in June.

The reports raise questions about whether the government's effort to use stimulus spending to boost consumer spending is working.

Sales tracker Thomson Reuters, which tracks monthly same-store sales for 30 chains such as Target (TGT, Fortune 500), Gap Inc. (GPS, Fortune 500) and J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500), said overall June sales for the group fell 4.9%, compared to a gain of 1.9% last June.

It marked the 10th-straight monthly decline for that index, which measures sales at stores open at least a year. That's worrisome because consumer spending fuels two-thirds of all economic activity.

Confirmation from

It was a mess of a month (or, should we say, a miss of a month) for retailers, with at least a dozen of the retailers reporting June same-store sales on Thursday missing expectations. Overall June same-store sales tumbled 5.1%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

You just can't make this stuff up:

Sales gained 0.4 percent Vs. June sales for the group fell 4.9%


Consumers are venturing back into stores... Retail sales in the U.S. probably increased in June Vs. Americans still aren't in the mood to splurge...It marked the 10th-straight monthly decline for that index

If the Commerece Department's report shows a rise in June's retail sales, you have to question the data....since almost every retailer reported declining June sales last week. If it doesn't show an increase, you have to question sobriety of the surveyed economists.....could it be Scott Grannis and his buddies?

No comments:

Post a Comment